FXUS65 KBOU 242131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
331 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft continues today with slightly higher
midlevel moisture pushing into the northern state border due to a
shortwave. ACARS soundings show the cap weakening over the
plains, this will help showers and weak storms form over the
higher terrain and Palmer Divide area later this afternoon and
push southeast into the early evening. The shortwave should
provide a northeasterly push with slight increase in midlevel moisture,
with the HRRR continuing to show convection forming over Larimer
County foothills. Recent runs however have been keeping in the
high terrain, signaling the plains remaining too capped. Satellite
trends seem to favor the cap holding at least for the next couple

High surface pressure will remain over the Great Plains through
Sunday, keeping east to southeasterly flow into the area. Look for
slightly warmer temperatures Sunday which will help obtain low
amounts of CAPE with the available moisture. There will be a
slight chance of showers and weak thunderstorms over most of the
area except the northern Front Range urban corridor where models
hold CIN over.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

On Monday...high pressure ridge aloft will move over Colorado with
warming temperatures expected over the plains. Still moisture will
be rather limited under the ridge with mainly isolated late day
storms over mountains and higher terrain. On Tuesday the ridge
will shift east of Colorado into the central plains and replaced
with a more westerly flow aloft and a jet streak over northern
sections of the state.  There should be a bit more moisture with
the flow for isolated showers/storms over much of Northern

For Thursday and Friday, the flow will shift west to northwest
and appears there will be several frontal boundaries which will
cool temperatures again to below seasonal normals. May see a bit
higher chances of showers late in the week with more low level
moisture available along with a trof passage late thursday and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions this afternoon with scattered ceilings around 6000
feet will likely become scattered to broken at times into this
evening. Forecast soundings show some lowering later tonight, but
over all should be improving and clearing out. MOS guidance
showing some potential of fog for BJC, but with some northwest
light drainage winds, will keep the mention out of the forecast.

Winds are expected to prevail out of the northeast through most of
the day, east by 03Z then southerly after 06Z. The will return out
of the northeast Sunday. A better chance to see showers/weak
thunderstorms on Sunday as well.




SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion